We often assume that if people understand the risk, they'll behave accordingly. The solar eclipse suggests otherwise.

‘𝘋𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘶𝘯’ is about as clear a safety message as you can get.

A known risk, with serious potential consequences, communicated via simple advice. And yet, judging by videos on social media and news reports from eye hospitals, plenty of people seem to have ignored it.

What intrigues me is why. As ever, there are probably a variety of explanations. Here are a few:

𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: For some, the effort — and maybe even the cost — of getting eclipses glasses was too much and they became hard to get hold of, particularly in the final day or so. In a world of Amazon Prime Same-Day Delivery, perhaps we’re simply less willing to plan ahead or make an effort.

𝗘𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻: There were, of course, perfectly good DIY alternatives to eclipse glasses: colanders, pinhole cameras and the wonderfully low-tech Pringles-can approach. But these require a bit of effort, preparation and confidence that the improvised solution will actually work.

𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: I’ve seen people question how a pair of cardboard glasses could possibly be safer than expensive sunglasses. There’s a scientific answer to that, but behaviourally it’s easy to understand how the thing that looks cheap and flimsy might not 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 more protective.

𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲: Sometimes being told not to do something — particularly by those experts of whom we’re told we’ve had enough — is temptation enough for a minority of people to test the rule for themselves, or simply rebel against it.

𝗗𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: (Social) media distorts the picture. People tend not to upload videos saying they complied with the rules, and there’s not much news (or, pun intended, many eyeballs) in ‘millions of people followed the guidance’. So I’m not suggesting this ‘stupidity’ was as widespread as it might appear. But it is a neat illustration of something we see in Compliance all the time:

𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝗿.

We can explain the risk, make the ‘rules’ simple and spell out the consequences, and some people will still make a different choice. Which is why metrics like training attendance or emails opened are such poor measures of whether compliance is actually likely. Communication is necessary, but it may not be sufficient to change behaviour.

Rather than me watching more TikTok videos of people ‘f*cking around and finding out’, I’d love to hear what you think. And if anyone has done any research on this, I'd love to read it.